The price of December Brent crude futures on the London ICE Futures exchange was $74.31 per barrel as of the morning of October 31, which is 1.66% higher than the figure fixed at the close of the previous trading. Last Friday, the price of these contracts rose to $73 per barrel, Caspian Energy Media reports with reference to the data of foreign sources.
WTI crude futures for December on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by 1.81% to $70.75 per barrel by now. At the close of the previous session, the value of these contracts rose to $69 per barrel.
This Sunday, OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned December oil output increase by one month, the group said on Sunday, as weak demand notably from China and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the oil market.
Eight members of OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, were due to raise output in December as part of a plan to gradually unwind the group's most recent layer of output curbs - a cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
Last month, OPEC+ already delayed the increase from October because of falling prices, weak demand and rising supplies. An easing of investor concern about conflict in the Middle East disrupting the region's oil output has also weighed on prices.
Despite the energy transition, fossil fuels continue to account for about 80% of energy demand, says IEA’s October report. Moreover, global coal demand grew by 2.6% in 2023, reaching an all-time high - a new record of 8.7 billion tones, according to the coal mid-year update – July 2024. IEA’s “Coal 2023 Analysis and Forecast to 2026” published in December 2023 says that coal remains the largest energy source for electricity generation, steel making and cement production.
As the WEO 2024 states, “[Oil] demand in 2023 surpassed the previous peak set in 2019.” Indeed, in the WEO 2024, the IEA has actually revised upwards its forecasts in the Stated Energy Policies Scenario (STEPS) for the cumulative share of coal, oil and gas in the energy mix in 2030 to 75% from 73% in WEO 2023, bringing it more into line with OPEC’s assessment.
It is also worth highlighting what other recent IEA reports say about the share of coal, oil and gas in the energy mix. Just last week, on 9 October 2024, the IEA launched its report ‘Renewables 2024’ in which it stated that “almost 80% of global energy demand will still be met by fossil fuels” in 2030. In the WEO 2024, the IEA stated that this share will be 75% in the Stated Energy Policies Scenario. As the IEA report says, shift to green energy will require 80 million kilometres of overhead power lines made out of copper, aluminum, steel, gold, silver, tungsten, nichrome and constantan. This is almost the same capacity that has been built over the last hundred years, which would need to be accomplished in 15 years.
It will require record consumption of fossil energy resources for the production of these alloys and its derivatives. Thus, the hydrocarbon industry is expecting a fairly stable growth in demand, and the introduction of renewable sources will only further increase industrial demand for them.
