Access to water is growing more critical each year in Central Asian countries.
Given this situation, it can be said what awaits Central Asia in the near future: water availability directly affects agriculture, drinking water supply, industry, energy, and human health. In Central Asia, access and transportation availability are limited, and countries are already facing difficulties in the shared use of Transboundary Rivers.
In August 2024, a team of experts from the Swiss company hydrosolutions GmbH — including hydrologists, climatologists, and water resource specialists — presented the first comprehensive assessment of climate impact on water resources in the 21st century for the entire high-mountain region of Central Asia, including Afghanistan. The specialists’ research covered more than 200 mountain basins with a total area of over 423,000 square kilometers.
Water in the region is formed as a result of melting snow and glaciers. Due to rising temperatures, snow is melting more rapidly, which leads to an increase in river flow. However, as glaciers melt and snow cover declines, the amount of water available during the summer season—when it is most needed for irrigation—decreases.
"We project significant glacier retreat in lowland areas, which will lead to reduced water runoff in certain parts of the Tien Shan, including the Naryn River basin. At the same time, in the high mountain regions of the Gissar-Alai and the Pamirs, water runoff will increase due to intensified glacier melt, a trend that will continue throughout the 21st century," Tobias says.
A slight increase in precipitation is also expected (ranging from 5.5% to 10.1% on average). However, these changes will not be uniform. Scientists predict that precipitation will become less frequent but more intense. This means that instead of regular rainfall, we may experience heavy rains followed by drought periods. Such changes could increase the risk of flooding and drought, which would have serious impacts on the environment and people's lives.
“The water security and stability of the entire region are at risk. For example, for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, water is the primary source of electricity generation.” https://www.asiaplustj.info/tj/news/centralasia/
Any changes related to water resources have a significant impact on the development of the entire region and each country individually. At the same time, new issues are arising, such as Afghanistan's construction of the large Kashgar-Amu Darya irrigation canal, which could potentially reduce water flow in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya by approximately 15-20%. At the same time, this country is not a participant in the regional water dialogue.
"Over the past decades, issues of water access, biodiversity, and climate have become significantly more acute in Central Asia. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze what has been created and implemented in previous years, carefully assess current activities, and, with the involvement of all countries sharing transboundary river basins, develop alternative paths for economic and social development and water cooperation,” ecologist Bulat Esekin says.
Climate change will exacerbate water scarcity in Central Asia, particularly in major river basins that rely on glacier and snow melt. To address this issue, experts believe it is crucial to take proactive measures.
