Caspian Energy Journal Caspian European Club
Monday, 24 September 2018 15:00

Oil demand keeps on growing

Oil demand keeps on growing

Total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 91 mboe/d (around 33%) between 2015 and 2040 to reach 365 mboe/d in 2040, Caspian Energy News ( reports with reference to World Oil Outlook 2018 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Renewables are expected to see the largest annual average growth rate, although they start from a low initial base. It should be noted that many OPEC Member Countries are making significant investments in renewables, given their vast solar and wind resources.

Oil is presumed to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix over the forecast period, led by demand from transportation and petrochemicals. Combined, oil and gas are still expected to make up more than 50% of the global energy mix by 2040. Oil is forecast to remain the largest contributor to the energy mix throughout the forecast period, with a share of nearly 28% in 2040, higher than gas and coal. Despite relatively low demand growth rates (especially for coal and oil), fossil fuels are projected to remain the dominant component in the global energy mix, with a share of 75% in 2040, albeit a drop of 6 percentage points from 2015.

Long-term oil demand is expected to increase by 14.5 mb/d to reach 111.7 mb/d by 2040. This is slightly higher than last year’s number, in spite of overall demand growth generally slowing over the projection period.

For supply, total non-OPEC liquid supply is projected to expand significantly, with the majority of the growth over the next decade coming from US tight oil. Global tight oil supply is projected to expand to 16 mb/d by the late 2020s, making up almost 25% of non-OPEC supply by then.

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