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Friday, 08 February 2019 15:00

EU growth moderates amid global uncertainties

EU growth moderates amid global uncertainties

According to ‘Winter 2019 Economic Forecast’ published by the European Commission, the European economy is expected to grow for the seventh year in a row in 2019, with expansion forecast in every Member State. The pace of growth overall is projected to moderate compared to the high rates of recent years and the outlook is subject to large uncertainty, Caspian Energy News (www.caspianenergy.net) reports with reference to the press statement of the European Commission.

The forecast says that economic activity moderated in the second half of last year as global trade growth slowed, uncertainty sapped confidence and output in some Member States was adversely affected by temporary domestic factors. As a result, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in both the euro area and the EU likely slipped to 1.9% in 2018, down from 2.4% in 2017 (Autumn Forecast: 2.1% for EU28 and euro area).

Economic growth will continue, albeit more moderately. Euro area GDP is now forecast to grow by 1.3% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020 (Autumn Forecast: 1.9% in 2019; 1.7% in 2020). The EU GDP growth forecast has also been revised down to 1.5% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020 (Autumn Forecast: 1.9% in 2019; 1.8% in 2020).

Among the larger Member States, downward revisions for growth in 2019 were sizeable for Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. Many Member States continue to benefit from robust domestic demand, also supported by EU funds.

Consumer price inflation in the euro area fell towards the end of 2018 due to a sharp drop in energy prices and lower food price inflation. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food prices, was muted throughout the year, despite faster wage growth. Overall inflation (HICP) averaged 1.7% in 2018, up from 1.5% in 2017. With oil price assumptions for this year and next year now lower than in autumn, euro area inflation is forecast to moderate to 1.4% in 2019 before picking up mildly to 1.5% in 2020. For the EU, inflation is forecast to average 1.6% this year and then pick up to 1.8% in 2020.

More details: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-850_en.htm

Person in charge of the newsline: Olga Nagiyeva 

 

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